December 2002 UCLA Anderson Forecast Conference

The UCLA Anderson Forecast
presents the quarterly economic forecast conference

California Competing in the Global Marketplace Series
The Outlook for Globalization after Two Years of Turmoil

Sunset Village, UCLA
December 5-6, 2002

The UCLA Anderson Forecast proudly presents its second annual conference on California and the global marketplace. This year’s gala event has been expanded to two days where we will again look at:

The health of the international economy
Critical links that connect California’s economy to the world
Current opportunities for local firms to develop overseas business

Our focus this year is a report card on globalization. It has been an extraordinary period for the international economy over the last two years. The ongoing war on terrorism has increased global security concerns. The US recession made it abundantly clear how the economic health of each nation increasingly impacts the health of other nations. Labor strife in the West Coast ports put the squeeze on the fragile US economy. This year we focus on the process of globalization, and what these incidences imply for it. Speakers and panelists will address such critical questions as:

Can nations immunize themselves from global economic turmoil? Should they even try?
What do recent security fears and trade tensions between the US and Europe mean for these historical linkages?
What do such issues mean for international companies trying to expand business?
What does the recent collapse of Argentina’s economy imply for global investors elsewhere?

On December 5, conference attendees will participate in general sessions featuring keynote speakers, a panel of experts that considers globalization from a regional perspective, and UCLA Forecast economists presenting our quarterly economic outlook. On December 6, we will present a series of breakout sessions each dedicated to discussing the economic health and business opportunities in various regions of the world with extensive ties to California. Our list of impressive confirmed panelists keeps growing; please check back again for additions and a final agenda.

Thursday, December 5, 2002

8:00am - 9:00am	Morning Registration (Northwest Auditorium)
9:00am - 11:30am	South Asia Panel: Impact of South Asian Entrepreneurs on the California Economy and its Corresponding Impact in South Asia (Covel Commons, Level 3, West Coast Room)
	Panelists: Gurchuran Das, former CEO of P&G, India and Author, India Unbound Kanwal Rekhi, Founder, The Indus Entrepreneurs And others...
11:30am - 12:30pm	Afternoon Registration (Northwest Auditorium) Lunch for Morning Attendees (Grand Horizon Room, Covel Commons)
12:30pm - 1:15pm	Keynote Address (Northwest Auditorium)
	"The Economies of California and Mexico: A Happy Marriage, Getting Better" Francisco Gil Diaz, Finance Minister of Mexico
1:15pm - 2:55pm	Forecast Panel: When Will the Real Recovery Begin? (Northwest Auditorium)
	Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
	Tom Lieser, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
	Christopher Thornberg, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
	Q & A
2:55pm - 3:35pm	Keynote Address (Northwest Auditorium)
	"5,000 Years of Globalization: A Long Run Perspective" Jared Diamond, Professor, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of Guns, Germs, and Steel: the Fates of Human Societies
3:35pm - 5:00pm	The Global Outlook Panel: Globalization from Three Different Regions (Northwest Auditorium
	Moderator: Richard Waters, West Coast Editor, The Financial Times
	Panelists: Sebastian Edwards, Professor of Global Economics and Management, The Anderson School at UCLA (Latin America) Russell Jones, Chief International Economist, Lehman Brothers (Asia) Ulrich Kohli, Chief Economist, Swiss National Bank (Europe) Philip K. Verleger, Jr., BP Senior Fellow in International Economics Council on Foreign Relations

5:00pm	Adjourn

Sponsorships Provided by:
	Wilbur Woo Vice Chairman of the Board, Cathay Bank

Friday, December 6, 2002

7:30am - 9:00am	Registration(Covel Commons Lobby) and Continental Breakfast(3rd Level)

9:00am - 10:30am

Session I Panels (Choose one), 3rd Level, Covel Commons

Latin America: Argentina Now - Who's Next?
South Bay Room

Israel: Economics in the Midst of Political Turmoil
Northridge Room

Japan: Will Growth Ever Return?
West Coast Room


10:30am - 12:00pm	Session II Panels (Choose one), 3rd Level, Covel Commons

NAFTA A: Trade & Economics after nearly a decade
South Bay Room

Korea: Is Recovery for Real?
Northridge Room

Wilbur Woo Greater China Economic Session A: The PRC - The Outlook on Liberalization and Development
West Coast Room


12:00pm - 2:00pm	Luncheon & Keynote Address (Grand Horizon Room, Covel Commons)
	Mickey Kantor, Former U.S. Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative, Clinton Administration

2:00pm - 3:30pm

Session III Panels (Choose one), 3rd Level, Covel Commons

NAFTA B: Labor and Immigration
South Bay Room

Europe: The EU and integration: Current status
Northridge Room

Wilbur Woo Greater China Economic Session B: Taiwan and Hong Kong - Growing in the Shadow of China
West Coast Room


3:30pm	Adjourn
Confirmed Panelists Include:
Japan Panel Yasushi Hamao, Professor, Marshall School of Business, USC Kaoru Hayama, Chairman of the Board, Union Bank of California, N.A.,President of the JBA Etsuro Honda, Deputy Consul-General, Consulate-General of Japan, New York Russell Jones, Chief International Economist, Lehman Brothers Archie Kleingartner, UCLA Professor Tom Plate, Founder and Director, Asiamedia; UCLA Professor Korea Panel Ahn Choong-Yong, President, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy Sang-Jung Nam, Consul for Economic Affairs, Korean Consulate General Peter Peck, Director of Research & Academic Affairs, Korea Economic Institute Dr. Sung-Soo Yoon, Professor, The Anderson School at UCLA Greater China Panel Baizhu Chen, Professor, USC Perry Wong, Milken Institute Michael Brownrigg, Partner, ChinaVest, San Francisco James Tong, UCLA Professor Frank Lysy, Sr. Advisor in IFC's Economics department Elley Mao, Principal Economist, Financial Services Bureau, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Timothy Bond, Economist for Asia-Pacific, Merrill Lynch, Hong Kong Dr. Sheng-Cheng Hu, Minister of State, Executive Yuan, Taiwan (ROC) Ron Nechemia, President, Eurorient Financial Group, Los Angeles South Asia Panel Bhagwan Chowdhry, UCLA Professor Apurba Dutta, co-CEO of Nexgenix Vinita Gupta, President and CEO, Quick Eagle Networks Deepak Lal, UCLA Professor Israel Panel Gil Livnah, Livnah Associates and Member of the Board, The CA Israel Chamber of Commerce Ogen Perry, Vertex Management William Robbins, Convergent Ventures Glenn Yago, Milken Institute Oren Zeev, Apax Partners South America Jose Mauro Carneiro da Cunha, Brazilian National Development Bank Sebastian Edwards, Henry Ford II Professor of International Business, Anderson School Mohammed El-Erian, PIMCO Emerging Markets fund manager Abe Lowenthal, USC Professor Frank Lysy, Sr. Advisor in IFC's Economics department NAFTA Panel Jorge Duran, University of Guatelajara Marco Firebaugh, State Assemblymember Jose Luis Romero Hicks, Director General, Banco de Comercio Exterior Raul Hinojosa, Professor, School of Public Policy, UCLA Gustavo Mohar, Negociador, en Jefe para Assuntos Migratorios Internacionales Colin Robertson, Consulate General of Canada/Los Angeles Ann Weston, Vice-President and Coordinator of Research North-South Center, Ottowa Carol Wise, Associate Professor, USC Europe Panel Josef Beck, Deputy Consulate General of Germany, Los Angeles office Anthony Gooch, European Union Fellow, USC and Advisor with the European Commission Ulrich Kohli, Chief Economist, Swiss National Bank Check back again for additional confirmed panelists.

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