The UCLA Anderson Forecast

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Quote of the day The paradox is now fully established that the utmost abstractions are the true weapons with which to control our thought of concrete fact. A. Whitehead

September 2009 Economic Outlook
UCLA Anderson Forecast: Worst National Recession in Seven Years Likely Ended this Quarter, but Remains Impactful for the Rest of the Decade California Will Join the Nation in Recovery, Despite a Contracting Public Sector LOS ANGELES, September 16, 2009 - In its third quarterly report of 2009, the UCLA Anderson Forecast concludes that the worst recession in seven decades likely ended in the current quarter, but then states that the negative impact of the downturn will last well into the next decade. Simply put, the Forecast believes that the roots of the recession originated in consumer over-indebtedness and that consumer spending, necessary for a robust recovery, will be tempered both by the unwillingness of financial institutions to lend and for consumers unwillingness to borrow. In California, the UCLA Anderson Forecast tentatively asserts that the state will join the nation in its economic recovery, but the incipient contraction of state and local government will damper the impact of the national resurgence for at least the near future. [Click here for the full story]
San Diego Economic Outlook for 2009-10
Recession for Most of 2009 with a Recovery in Housing Market San Diego, May 15, 2009 - The UCLA Anderson Forecast today released its annual economic forecast for San Diego County. The Forecast states the official end month for the national recession is likely to be early in the second half of 2009, and the worst of the problems for San Diego will then be over. The unemployment rate for the nation and San Diego is likely to continue to elevate until growth becomes strong enough to absorb new entrants into the labor market. [Click here for the full story]

June 2009 Economic Forecast Conference
	Video Keynote Address - Commercial Real Estate: Distress and Opportunity Mike Kirby, Chairman and Director of Research, Green Street Advisors Download the accompanying Powerpoint Slides. Contact Green Street Advisors

Insights

California's Budget Does Not Solve Underlying Problems State relies too heavily on taxes from top earners Dr. Jerry Nickelsburg is a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast. Among his responsibilities are the economic forecast for California and authorship of the associated quarterly California Report. Last week, the state of California ended a months-long stalemate with the passage of a new budget. While the next UCLA Anderson Forecast for California is not scheduled for release until March, Nickelsburg had some immediate reaction to the newly-passed budget. [Click here to read the transcript]

From Jerry-Rigged to Petered Out: Lessons from the Deukmejian Era for Contemporary California State Budgeting Daniel J.B. Mitchell September 1, 2007 In this forthcoming chapter of California Policy Options 2008, Former Director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ho-Su Wu Professor Daniel Mitchell points out that California’s current mixture of a slowing economy, a persistent budget deficit, and a no-new-taxes governor has actually been a common feature of state budgeting since the 1980s. Prof. Mitchell argues that there are several important lessons current policy makers can learn from this history, so that we hopefully are not doomed to repeat it. Download the full article [PDF]

Book Review A Flat World, A Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above? Edward Leamer February 21, 2006 Award-winning journalist and author, Thomas L. Friedman discusses the changing forces of global competition in his best-seller, The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. Award-winning professor and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, Edward Leamer reviews the book and dissects the title's metaphor in the Journal of Economic Literature book review, "A Flat World, A Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above?" Read more... [PDF]

Frequently Viewed Articles
UCLA Anderson Forecast Data Release October 2008 Seasonally Adjusted Regional Job Data for California UCLA Anderson Forecast November 2008 [Click here for the report]	Forecast Conference Summary Quick Links 2009 [September] [June] [March] 2008 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2007 [December] [September] [June] [April] 2006 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2005 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2004 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2003 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2002 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2001 [December]
The World After Greenspan [Adobe PDF] Axel Leijonhufvud December 7, 2005 Unquestionably, a very successful tenure as Fed Chairman. But the media hype about him has gone too far. Read more... [Click here to view the PDF]
Focus on Orange County Conference Report says new O.C. jobs pay above-average wages James B. Kelleher THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER October 1, 2004 [Click here for the full story]
The State of Southern California’s Housing [Adobe PDF] Paul Ong, Kim Haselhoff, Michela Zonta and Christopher Thornberg June 2004 [Click here to view the PDF]
An Update on Bubble Trouble By Edward Leamer Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2, 2003 [Click here to Download the PDF]
Bubble Trouble By Edward Leamer Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2002 [Click here to Download the PDF]
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