The UCLA Anderson Forecast

Welcome







Quote of the day Thus for the first time since his creation, man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem--how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well. John Maynard Keynes , writing in 1930 about the Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren

December 2009 Economic Outlook
Modest Growth Coupled with High Unemployment Seen In National Economy Little or No Economic Growth in California This Year, Followed by "Slight" Growth in 2010 Before More Normal Growth Rates Return in 2011 LOS ANGELES, December 9, 2009 - In its fourth quarterly report of 2009, the UCLA Anderson Forecast continues its theme from September that the national economy is on a “modest growth path that will be accompanied by extraordinarily high rates of unemployment.” This slow growth outlook reflects the lagged effects of the implosion of consumer balance sheets and, according to the Forecast, is a result of the economy in transition from being an import-oriented/low-savings rate one to a more export and higher-savings oriented one. Fueling this transition is the administration’s “weak dollar policy” which encourages exports and discourages the consumption of imports and the combined effect will cause real consumer spending to grow at a modest 2% rate – far below the historical 3 – 3.5% rate. In California, the UCLA Anderson Forecast suggests that the recession is playing out much as was predicted. The state’s unemployment rate continues to increase and local government employment continues to decline. Larger than expected reductions in government spending lowers the California forecast slightly when compared to the previous report. [Click here for the full story]
San Diego Economic Outlook for 2009-10
Recession for Most of 2009 with a Recovery in Housing Market San Diego, May 15, 2009 - The UCLA Anderson Forecast today released its annual economic forecast for San Diego County. The Forecast states the official end month for the national recession is likely to be early in the second half of 2009, and the worst of the problems for San Diego will then be over. The unemployment rate for the nation and San Diego is likely to continue to elevate until growth becomes strong enough to absorb new entrants into the labor market. [Click here for the full story]

June 2009 Economic Forecast Conference
	Video Keynote Address - Commercial Real Estate: Distress and Opportunity Mike Kirby, Chairman and Director of Research, Green Street Advisors Download the accompanying Powerpoint Slides. Contact Green Street Advisors

Insights

California's Budget Does Not Solve Underlying Problems State relies too heavily on taxes from top earners Dr. Jerry Nickelsburg is a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast. Among his responsibilities are the economic forecast for California and authorship of the associated quarterly California Report. Last week, the state of California ended a months-long stalemate with the passage of a new budget. While the next UCLA Anderson Forecast for California is not scheduled for release until March, Nickelsburg had some immediate reaction to the newly-passed budget. [Click here to read the transcript]

From Jerry-Rigged to Petered Out: Lessons from the Deukmejian Era for Contemporary California State Budgeting Daniel J.B. Mitchell September 1, 2007 In this forthcoming chapter of California Policy Options 2008, Former Director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ho-Su Wu Professor Daniel Mitchell points out that California’s current mixture of a slowing economy, a persistent budget deficit, and a no-new-taxes governor has actually been a common feature of state budgeting since the 1980s. Prof. Mitchell argues that there are several important lessons current policy makers can learn from this history, so that we hopefully are not doomed to repeat it. Download the full article [PDF]

Book Review A Flat World, A Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above? Edward Leamer February 21, 2006 Award-winning journalist and author, Thomas L. Friedman discusses the changing forces of global competition in his best-seller, The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. Award-winning professor and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, Edward Leamer reviews the book and dissects the title's metaphor in the Journal of Economic Literature book review, "A Flat World, A Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above?" Read more... [PDF]

Frequently Viewed Articles
UCLA Anderson Forecast Data Release October 2008 Seasonally Adjusted Regional Job Data for California UCLA Anderson Forecast November 2008 [Click here for the report]	Forecast Conference Summary Quick Links 2009 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2008 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2007 [December] [September] [June] [April] 2006 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2005 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2004 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2003 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2002 [December] [September] [June] [March] 2001 [December]
The World After Greenspan [Adobe PDF] Axel Leijonhufvud December 7, 2005 Unquestionably, a very successful tenure as Fed Chairman. But the media hype about him has gone too far. Read more... [Click here to view the PDF]
Focus on Orange County Conference Report says new O.C. jobs pay above-average wages James B. Kelleher THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER October 1, 2004 [Click here for the full story]
The State of Southern California’s Housing [Adobe PDF] Paul Ong, Kim Haselhoff, Michela Zonta and Christopher Thornberg June 2004 [Click here to view the PDF]
An Update on Bubble Trouble By Edward Leamer Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2, 2003 [Click here to Download the PDF]
Bubble Trouble By Edward Leamer Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2002 [Click here to Download the PDF]
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