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UCLA Anderson Forecast Regional Job Employment Data Release

Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey

Quote of the day

Government spending? I don't know what it's all about. I don't know any more about this thing than an economist does, and, God knows, he doesn't know much.

Will Rogers


The Anderson School at UCLA

 
What's Happening
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March 2008 Economic Forecast Conference
Sluggish Economy Close to Recession
But, Forecasters Say, Situation Doesn't Meet Definition of 'True' Recession

LOS ANGELES, March 11, 2008 - In its first quarterly report of 2008, released March 11, the UCLA Anderson Forecast remains confident that the national economy was not in a recession through January 2008 and continues to forecast weak growth but no official recession in 2008.

As in their recent forecasts, UCLA Anderson Forecast economists shed a negative light on the real estate sector, with problems there continuing to be a drag on the economy as a whole, particularly as the home mortgage crisis becomes a credit crisis.

In California, the economic outlook continues to mirror that of the nation, despite questions by some regarding the possibility of a state recession in the absence of a national recession. The Anderson Forecast concludes that California is too closely tied to the nation for such an occurrence, and the outlook appears much the same — slow growth as the fallout from the real estate sector slowly works its way out of the economy.

[Click here for the full story]


Insights
From Jerry-Rigged to Petered Out:
Lessons from the Deukmejian Era for Contemporary California State Budgeting

Daniel J.B. Mitchell
September 1, 2007

In this forthcoming chapter of California Policy Options 2008, Former Director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ho-Su Wu Professor Daniel Mitchell points out that California’s current mixture of a slowing economy, a persistent budget deficit, and a no-new-taxes governor has actually been a common feature of state budgeting since the 1980s. Prof. Mitchell argues that there are several important lessons current policy makers can learn from this history, so that we hopefully are not doomed to repeat it.

Download the full article [PDF]

Book Review

A Flat World, A Level Playing Field,
a Small World After All, or None of the Above?


Edward Leamer
February 21, 2006




Award-winning journalist and author, Thomas L. Friedman discusses the changing forces of global competition in his best-seller, The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century.

Award-winning professor and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, Edward Leamer reviews the book and dissects the title's metaphor in the Journal of Economic Literature book review, "A Flat World, A Level Playing Field, a Small World After All, or None of the Above?"

Read more... [PDF]

Commentary

What About the 'R' Word?
With the house party ending, don't expect robust growth -- but a recession isn't likely

Edward Leamer
January 16, 2006

In recessions we have negative economic growth, and in recoveries we rack up pluses. But overall, the U.S. economy since 1970 has grown an average of a little more than 3 percent a year.

Don't expect that for 2006.

The Wall Street Journal, in a recent survey of 56 economists, found that their forecasts for 2006 averaged around the "normal" rate of 3 percent. But that is not what the UCLA Anderson Forecast projects.

[Click here for the full story]

MEDIA
Video
Los Angeles Mayor Sees Strength in City’s Immigrant Population

Mayor Antonia Villaraigosa addresses the audience during the September conference with his perspectives on how the Latino community has and will continue to impact California's economy.

[Click here to view the video]
[Click here to view the text]
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Frequently Viewed Articles
UCLA Anderson Forecast Data Release
November 2007 Seasonally Adjusted Regional Job Data for California
UCLA Anderson Forecast
December 21, 2007
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Forecast Conference Summary
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2001
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The World After Greenspan [Adobe PDF]
Axel Leijonhufvud
December 7, 2005

Unquestionably, a very successful tenure as Fed Chairman. But the media hype about him has gone too far. Read more... [Click here to view the PDF]
Focus on Orange County Conference
Report says new O.C. jobs pay above-average wages
James B. Kelleher
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
October 1, 2004
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The State of Southern California’s Housing [Adobe PDF]
Paul Ong, Kim Haselhoff, Michela Zonta and Christopher Thornberg
June 2004
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An Update on Bubble Trouble
By Edward Leamer
Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics
Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
June 2, 2003
[Click here to Download the PDF]
Bubble Trouble
By Edward Leamer
Professor of Management, Economics and Statistics
Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
June 2002
[Click here to Download the PDF]

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