|
| Press Release |
UCLA Anderson Forecast: Orange County Economy May Be Limping Along But Housing And Labor Markets Will Strengthen By Mid 2011
|
| |
| |
Irvine, CA - October 27, 2010 - Economic activity is increasing across a number of
important sectors in Orange County, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for
Orange County.
“Orange County leads a very slow recovery in California,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior
economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast. “Growth in Orange County manufacturing, professional,
scientific, technical and leisure and hospitality services has been more rapid than in the
state as a whole. However, overall, the county's employment picture is only marginally
improved from the depth of the recession.”
The report states that job creation has been positive in Orange County for much of the
calendar year. Seasonally adjusted, a total of 24,500 private sector jobs have been created
since January 2010. However, job creation still remains below levels expected in a
well-functioning job market. And the current pace of net job creation will not materially
lower the unemployment rate over the next 6 months.
“While the growth path is modest, it is nonetheless positive,” said Mark Schniepp, associate,
UCLA Anderson Forecast. “Private sector job creation has been larger than expected, and
positive in 7 of the first 8 months of the year. New residential construction has turned
around and a better than expected tourist summer season created thousands of jobs in the
visitor serving sector.”
According to the report the leisure and hospitality sector has created 7,500 jobs over the
last 12 months in Orange County. Nearly the entire gain was in the accommodations and food
services sector that principally serve tourists.
The outlook for an expansion of the workforce shows momentum building into 2012, according
to the report. The forecast for unemployment has Orange County’s rate falling to 8.5 percent
next year, and to 7.4 percent in 2012. While the public sector remains weak, the private
sector will do all the heavy lifting regarding job growth in 2011. Approximately 24,000 new
jobs are forecast, followed by 41,000 in 2012.
Residential real estate will see a sluggish housing market for the remainder of this year
and into next spring, says the Forecast. At that time, pent up demand, rising afford- ability,
and dissipating fear of a faltering economy should push sales higher.
Commercial real estate vacancy rates remain high for office and industrial space in Orange
County though they have improved marginally this year. At the end of 2nd quarter 2010, office
vacancy stood at 16.7 percent in the County with the Airport area at 17.6 percent. Office
using employment is now just recovering, with more professional business services jobs leading
the charge.
About UCLA Anderson Forecast
UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks
for California and the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the
early-1990s downturn in California and the strength of the state's rebound since 1993. More
recently, the Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to
declare the recession of 2001.
About UCLA Anderson School of Management
UCLA Anderson School of Management, established in 1935, is regarded among the very best
business schools in the world. UCLA Anderson faculty are ranked #1 in "intellectual capital"
by BusinessWeek and are renowned for their teaching excellence and research in advancing
management thinking. Each year, UCLA Anderson provides management education to more than 1,600
students enrolled in MBA, Executive MBA, Fully-Employed MBA and doctoral programs, and to more
than 2,000 professional managers through executive education programs. Combining highly
selective admissions, varied and innovative learning programs, and a world-wide network of
35,000 alumni, UCLA Anderson develops and prepares global leaders.
|
| |
|
|
